The Transformation of Paraguayan Residential Habitat: 30 Years of Change and Trends towards 2052

The INE Census reveals how, between 1992 and 2022, occupied housing grew at a faster rate than the population, marking a structural change in the way the country is inhabited and in the configuration of its cities.

Over the past three decades, Paraguay has undergone a profound housing transformation that has mirrored, and in some aspects surpassed, the evolution of its population and economy. Data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) show that between 1992 and 2022, the total number of occupied private dwellings increased from 855,547 to 1,749,336 units. During the same period, the country's population grew by 88%, while the number of occupied dwellings increased by more than 104%. This difference reveals that the growth rate of households with owned or rented homes exceeded that of population growth, suggesting a progressive decrease in household density and an expansion of access to housing. It is important to emphasize that these figures refer to dwellings that are actually occupied—that is, those where at least one person resides at the time of the census—and not necessarily to the total number of available or newly constructed units in the country.

A comparison of the 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 censuses also reveals a structural shift in the morphology of Paraguay's occupied housing stock. In 1992, single-family homes, the traditional "house or ranch," represented almost the entirety of occupied dwellings. With 817,137 units at that time, this typology accounted for more than 95% of the total. Thirty years later, in 2022, that figure rose to 1,621,209 occupied dwellings, equivalent to a 98% increase. While the absolute number nearly doubled, the growth was lower than the overall average for the housing stock, reflecting a gradual loss of relative share within the total. This change does not necessarily imply a direct replacement, but rather a diversification of the types of housing actually inhabited, driven by new forms of urbanization and the expansion of multi-family construction.

The case of occupied apartments or flats is the most representative phenomenon of this transition. In 1992, there were only 7,997 inhabited units of this type; by 2022, the figure had reached 44,145 occupied dwellings. This 452% increase is one of the most significant variations within the census record and highlights the verticalization process that is consolidating in the main urban centers. Asunción and its metropolitan area concentrate most of this growth, fueled by rising land values, the scarcity of available land in central areas, and the pursuit of greater efficiency in the use of urban infrastructure. As the cost of urban land rises and the demand for strategic locations increases, the vertical development model is positioning itself as the most logical and sustainable response for Paraguayan cities.

This process is also linked to a demographic and cultural transformation. The average household size has decreased, while patterns of labor and educational mobility are diversifying. Young people, in particular, tend to prioritize proximity to workplaces, schools, or leisure activities, and prefer more compact and technologically integrated housing. These factors converge to shape a new paradigm of urban housing: more vertical, more efficient, and more connected.

Another significant change is observed in the so-called "tenancy rooms," a smaller, usually rented, housing category that increased by 201% during the same period. They rose from 22,735 occupied units in 1992 to 68,402 in 2022. This increase is closely linked to rural-to-urban migration and the expansion of low-income urban areas where informality in the rental market remains high. Tenancy rooms serve as a quick and low-cost solution for families or individuals transitioning to urban life, and their growth reflects both the pressure on the formal housing supply and the need for flexible accommodation in areas with high concentrations of employment or education. The expansion of tenancy rooms, in parallel with the growth of residential buildings, reflects the coexistence of two distinct urban dynamics. While the formal market is advancing with increasingly planned, technologically advanced projects geared towards higher-income segments, a significant portion of the population continues to access housing through informal or self-managed solutions, outside of credit and urban planning circuits.

The category called “other private housing,” which includes annexes, makeshift dwellings, and structures intended for temporary or shared housing, also grew significantly, increasing from 7,678 to 15,580 occupied units, representing a 103% rise. While less substantial in absolute terms, this growth indicates the complexity of the housing landscape, where non-traditional housing forms respond to specific needs related to mobility, income, or location, and sometimes also to pressures on land availability in metropolitan peripheries.

Looking at long-term trends, statistical models based on census data show that, if growth rates continue, Paraguay could reach between 175,000 and 225,000 occupied apartments by 2052. According to projections, this type of housing would increase from representing 2.5% of total occupied housing in 2022 to between 8% and 12% by mid-century. This projection is supported by both the exponential model, which assumes a continuation of the current rate of urban growth, and the logistic model, which considers a moderate slowdown as market saturation is reached. In both scenarios, the conclusion is the same: vertical housing will cease to be a phenomenon concentrated in the central neighborhoods of Asunción and will become a structural component of the country's housing growth.

Occupied houses or ranches, on the other hand, will continue to increase in absolute number, albeit at a slower pace. Linear and exponential models estimate that by 2052 there will be between 2.3 and 3 million occupied dwellings of this type, representing sustained growth but with a relative reduction in their share of the total. Proportionally, the predominance of single-family homes will tend to diminish as urban centers absorb most of the demographic and economic growth. Low-density peripheral expansion, while persistent in many localities, will face increasing limitations related to the cost of infrastructure, transportation, and public services.

The contrast between the 452% increase in the number of occupied apartments and the 88% increase in the total population highlights the scope of the structural change underway in the country. Paraguay is moving towards a denser, more vertical urban model, more focused on integrated land uses, where land efficiency and proximity to services are becoming key determinants of value. This process not only modifies the physical form of cities but also the social, labor, and economic dynamics that sustain them. High-rise living introduces new patterns of coexistence, demands a different infrastructure, and poses unprecedented challenges for urban planning and the management of essential services.

The ongoing transition presents both significant opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, densification allows for better use of existing infrastructure, reduces transportation costs, and promotes more sustainable urban growth. On the other hand, it demands more precise regulations, affordable rental policies, and planning strategies that guarantee quality of life in high-density environments. In this context, the consolidation of modern financial instruments, such as investment trusts, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and securitization mechanisms, could play a central role in the orderly expansion of the residential market, enabling the channeling of private savings toward long-term urban development.

Thus, Paraguay in the coming decades is shaping up to be a country that combines the enduring presence of traditional housing with a rapidly expanding multi-family residential typology. Single-family homes will remain predominant, but their dominance will be progressively balanced by a steadily growing stock of apartments. The cities of the future, more compact, connected, and sustainable, will be built around this new equilibrium, where the home will no longer be merely a horizontal extension of the land but will become part of a vertical, collective, and functional structure, reflecting a society that evolves along with its way of living.